October 29, 2010

Education: Infrastructure of the Future

After the American Century

For decades, the United States had a Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, and while these are no longer joined administratively, politicians all too often seem to think that these three things belong together. They do not. 

Education is part of the fundamental infrastructure a nation needs for the economy to work. Nineteenth-century manufacturers understood this, and supported compulsory education beyond primary school. They did so because numeracy and literary are essential for an industrial economy. And when the US Congress created the Homestead Act of 1862, which sold land very cheaply to settlers willing to take a chance and go West, they also passed a law that gave some of the proceeds from selling that land for the purpose of creating universities. Today, some of these land-grant institutions are among the best in the world. These nineteenth century politicians understood that to develop the economy, the citizens had to be educated. 

In both the United States and Denmark recent studies have underlined the centrality of education and research to a strong economy. A US report warns that in the last decade the nation has not kept pace with others in science and technology education. A Danish study shows that people with higher educations rapidly pay so much in taxes that within just two years society has gotten back its investment in them - this in a society where there is no tuition and the state therefore knows with some precision just how much it costs to educate each student. Even humanities students, whom politicians often disparage as pursuing useless knowledge, turn out to repay the cost of their education after working for just two years, almost as quickly as the scientists and doctors, who, of course, cost more to train. 

Education is the heart of tomorrow's infrastructure. It has the power to transform people's lives, to assist people who otherwise might be helpless to make vital contributions. A blind person with a good education can work and contribute to society in many ways. I went to college with a blind man who now is a judge in the United States. Without an education, he would likely have been a lifelong recipient of welfare.

Welfare rescues people in need. Welfare may help a child to greater success later in life or help a struggling parent who later becomes self-sufficient again. But welfare is not, on the whole, an activity that can or should be justified because it is profitable. Education is another matter. A good educational system will make society more entrepreneurial, richer, more agile, more adaptable, or in short, more able to meet the challenges of the future. 

Unhappily, politicians keep forgetting this fact. The response to the world economic crisis of 2008-2009 in all too many places was to cut back on education. In 2010 California imposed severe cutbacks on its schools and universities, which already had had their spending slashed in earlier years. A state which was once a model for others, with a powerful educational sector driving economic growth, seems to have lost its way. In many schools 30% of the staff have been fired, libraries closed, and class sizes increased by 25 percent or more. At universities, required courses are not always available, and some students will not graduate on time because they literally cannot get into a course they need. And those who do get registered may not get a seat, as the classrooms often are not large enough to hold the expanded sections. 

The failure to fund education adequately will hurt the Californian economy both short- and long-term. When people do not graduate on time, they to not repay the cost of their education as quickly. And when fewer people get an education at all and more people get a compromised education, the economy will be hurt for the entire lifetime of that generation. For a state, this is not just stupid, but self-destructive. In Denmark, national and local authorities have slashed budgets, closed schools, and created an unemployment rate of 31 percent among newly trained teachers. At universities, there is almost no hiring, and those retired are seldom replaced. A generation is being thrown away, or rather being driven away.

For people with skills are mobile. A recent survey found that half of all Danish workers find the idea of taking their skills elsewhere in Europe attractive. In the United States, people have always been quick to pull up stakes and try their luck in another part of the country. In 2008 135,000 more people left California than moved in, a trend that is accelerating. Often those who leave are among the most talented, such as a student who gets a scholarship, or the newly graduated student. The young often vote with their feet. The old fashioned kind of infrastructure like roads and bridges stays put. But a world-class scientist can be lured away, an unemployed PhD will not usually linger where no one wants her, and a newly trained teacher or nurse who cannot get a job may go abroad. 

If education is infrastructure, it is mobile infrastructure. A society that cuts education will lose not only the skills of (and the higher taxes that would have been paid by) those it never trained - it will also lose some of the best new people it has most recently trained. 

Imagine that Nation Dumb invests millions in a new highly mobile bridge, but then decides not to use it. Instead, Nation Smart imports this mobile bridge without paying anything for it, puts it into use and immediately begins to make a profit from the tolls. Education is that kind of infrastructure. Denmark and California (and many others) have built and abandoned the infrastructure of tomorrow. 

October 25, 2010

US Mid-Term Elections: A Typical Result Likely

After the American Century

The media hype about these midterm elections has been devoid of historical memory. One breathless journalist after another has been proclaiming that a vast change is taking place. In fact, this midterm election looks much like those of the past.

Typically, the part occupying the White House loses seats in both the House and the Senate at every midterm election. Between 1842 and 1990. only one sitting president managed to win seats, and that was Roosevelt in 1934 after his spectacular early successes in the New Deal. Otherwise, in that 150 year period, EVERY president lost. Even popular presidents like Eisenhower and LBJ suffered big losses in the midterm elections of 1958 and 1966. Eisenhower lost 48 seats in the House and 13 in the Senate. Johnson lost 47 in the House and 4 in the Senate. So, should Obama lose roughly the same number of House seats, as now projected, he would be in good company.  Note also that Clinton lost 52 seats in the House in 1994, FDR lost 71 House seats in 1938, and Reagan lost 8 Senate seats in 1986.

Perhaps the media have lost track of this pattern in US elections because it did not hold true twice in recent memory. First, in 1998, Clinton did not lose any Senate seats and gained a few in the House. But since he had lost so many seats in 1994 and not gotten so many of them back in 1996, this was less a victory than it might appear. Second, in the aftermath of 9/11, George W. Bush (who received less than half the vote in 2000), was able to terrify the nation into supporting their president. That was a special circumstance, to say the least, and in 2006 the midterms were "normal" again, as he lost 30 House seats and 6 in the Senate.

One other typical pattern of midterm elections is also running true to form: the races are tightening as we near election day. Races that Republicans seemed likely to win have become ties in several states. Few now think the Republicans will be able to regain control of the Senate, though it does seem they have a good chance to retake control of the House. This could lead to grid-lock in Washington (as in 1995-96), but then again, gaining control of the House might force the Republicans to develop detailed policies again, rather than simply working to obstruct.

I do not regard this election to be anything unusual in the history of American politics. I do not even think the Tea Party is all that significant, since its members are almost all people who would vote Republican anyway.  Given huge secret campaign contributions and lots of media attention, they nevertheless do not seem to be changing the overall pattern very much. US elections are mostly decided by the one-third of the voters who are in the middle, and  they waffle from one party to the other on a regular basis. Unhappily, many of this group are not deeply analytical and appear to have historical memories that stretch only back about three or four years, at best. The beconomy, specifically, their own situation, is the main issue for such voters. With unemployment high, growth sluggish, and lots of foreclosures, this economy would be hard on any incumbent president.

In nine days we will know the results, but the statistical pattern suggests that Obama and the Democrats are not about to suffer anything more than the typical rebalancing inflicted by voters on the incumbents. Why should anyone familiar with American politics think that the nation had suddenly become liberal, or that the Democrats could expect to hold on to 59 Senate seats? Expect the Republicans to regain the House by a small margin, while the Democrats hold on, barely, to the Senate. 

October 13, 2010

Who is Energy Efficient? Blue States

After the American Century

Once again the individual American states have been evaluated for energy efficiency, and again California is the most efficient, with Massachusetts close behind. Basically, the "blue" states that voted for Obama are the most energy efficient, while the overconsuming states are mostly the "red" states that don't really give a damn about being green, or at least so it would seem. Note the states at the bottom of the list, Alabama, Mississippi, and Wyoming. These are also states that don't want a national health care system. Their motto should be "Pollute often and die young."

Here is the complete list:

#1 California          #18 Arizona           #35 Tennessee
#2 Massachusetts    #19 Colorado        #36 Kentucky
#3 Oregon              #19 District of Col #37 Alaska
#4 New York         #19 Nevada           #37 Georgia
#5 Vermont            #22 New Hampshire  #37 South Carolina
#6 Washington       #22 New Mexico #39 South Dakota
#7 Rhode Island     #24 N. Carolina   #41 Arkansas
#8 Connecticut       #25 Illinois           #42 Louisiana
#8 Minnesota         #26 Idaho             #43 Missouri
#10 Maine              #27 Delaware      #43 Oklahoma
#11 Wisconsin        #27 Michigan       #43 West Virginia
#12 Hawaii             #27 Ohio              #46 Kansas
#12 Iowa                #30 Florida          #47 Nebraska
#12 New Jersey     #31 Indiana          #48 Alabama
#12 Utah                #32 Texas            #48 Wyoming
#16 Maryland        #33 Montana        #50 Mississippi
#16 Pennsylvania  #34 Virginia        #51 North Dakota


Note that the "swing" states in presidential elections fall right in the middle of the list, including Michigan, Ohio, and Florida.

The list has changed somewhat in the last year, as states like Arizona and New Mexico have climbed to higher positions as they have adopted more solar energy.

If you want more information, click here.

October 09, 2010

More on the IPad: Not yet convinced

After the American Century

After several more days using the IPad, here is a further report.

The screen is very satisfactory, sharp, clear, great color. The range of things you can do is  large in theory, though I have not yet had time to get some of them to work for me. I have used it to go on Facebook, to surf the Web, to watch YouTube, and to download about 20 free books. The Ipad is easy to use once you get the hang of it, and the battery lasts a reasonably long time.

I still have issues with the IPad, however. For some reason I cannot get it to interact with my home computer via Bluetooth, which seems to be the only efficient way to move files or images from one to the other. Also, a software program I purchased from  ITunes  failed to download  and then disappeared from the screen. However, the cost of the program was extracted from my bank account, and a receipt sent to my email address. In other words, Apple  assumed that the download to my IPad worked and took the money without knowing if it did or not.

I am now involved in email exchanges with Apple, which basically consist of them saying that the program is just waiting for me to download it and me saying, fine, but I cannot find it anywhere. Needless to say, I am not buying anything more using the IPad until this is cleared up. One more experience of this type would be enough to put me off completely, life being too short for such nonsense.

The problem stems, I think, from the poor quality WIFI in the hotel where I was staying in Boston. The signal was not strong in the room, though I did find it possible to use the IPad there, though with some interruptions (signal loss). The portable computer, also an Apple, worked perfectly at all times, however. Other small experiments confirmed this experience. The IPad appears worse at detecting signals and holding contact than a MacBook.

The IPad is a fine machine, but  WIFI reception is erratic, and the ITunes downloading is therefore also erratic and should only be attempted when assured of a strong signal. Maybe Apple should provide an antenna! Overall, I like the IPad and hope it can really do all the things it is supposed to do. But I am not yet convinced.

For anyone thinking about buying either a Kindle or an IPad, there is a clear, short video by Tim Challies demonstrating the two devices. He finds the best option is to buy an IPad but to use it to buy books from Amazon using a Kindle App. He is probably right. You can see it here.

October 07, 2010

We Need a Travel Olympics!

After the American Century

The ancient Greeks created their Olympics based on the skills needed back in their day, such as running, throwing a spear, jumping over things, and the like. Today, the world is far different and people need quite different skills. I therefore propose a new Travel Olympics. More disciplines must be added, but here are some vital skills that should be celebrated.

500 Meter Suitcase Race. Participants must run as they carry a standard suitcase, without wheels, that weighs 23 kilos. In the other hand they must hold a carry on bag that weighs 10 kilos. The racecourse must include at least one staircase of 15 or more steps.

2000 Meter Suitcase Relay. As above, with teams of 4. The suitcase handoffs will be crucial.

Security Control. Each participant must be wearing normal street clothing as they enter the Security Control area, carrying with them a 10 kilo bag containing a laptop computer, camera, and other items designated by the directors of the competition. The winner is the competitor who can in the shortest time, remove a a belt, shoes, watch, jacket, spare change, two pens and a memory stick, each in a different pocket, pass through the metal detector, and reassemble and put back in place all their belongings. Points will also be given for the elegance of movement. To be performed with accompanying music, as in figure skating competitions.

Airport Marathon. Contestants are at an airport, blindfolded, and told what gate they must find. The blindfold is then removed as a sketchy map of the airport is given to each.  The winner is that person who first navigates all the obstacles to the proper gate. The obstacles shall include passport control and security control. The signs are to be contradictory, and anyone asking directions incurs a five minute wait in line.

Speed shopping in duty-free, the winner being the person who saves the most compared to high street prices, after spending $1000.



October 05, 2010

Book Buyer's Nil Served: Ipad's absurd marketing arrangements

After the American Century

One of the chief advantages of getting an Ipad, I imagined, was that I would be able to buy American books quickly and easily. Most of the scholarly books and many of the novels I want are simply not available anywhere in Denmark, and often they are hard to find  in the UK as well. However, Apple has chosen to set up its sales in such a way it will not sell most US books to a person whose residence is outside the US. Even when I am physically present in the US,  because my Ipad belongs to a person with a Danish address, I can only access and buy a tiny selection of books selected for the Danish market.

Imagine going to New York on holiday, entering a real bookstore, selecting several volumes, and then being told at checkout that you may not purchase these books unless you have a bank credit card tied to an American address. This is material for a sketch by Monty Python.

The obvious comparison is Amazon's Kindle reader which costs only a quarter as much as the Ipad, has a much longer battery life (measured in weeks not hours), is lighter in weight by far, and apparently (I have not done this) can download an enormous number of books regardless of where you are in the world or where your billing address might be.

While the Ipad can play videos and music, show photographs, surf the internet, and do lots of other things, the  buyer without a US address who wants American books is ill - indeed almost NIL - served. I could understand (though not like it much) if Apple made a selection of American books available in the EU as a whole, but to slice up the European market into tiny national segments is absurd. Why should the Brit, the German, and the Dane be forced to go to different virtual stores? What is Apple thinking? Are they thinking?

In the present "store" I can get quite a few books by the great Danish author of a century ago, Herman Bang, but I cannot get much of anything contemporary in Danish or in English. A new German novel had a nice review in the New York Times yesterday, but using the Apple "service" I cannot buy this book in either German or in English. It is sham, a joke, a hoax, and quite nonsensical. Indeed, it is close to false advertising, for Apple to brag about their book service when it really is only for people with an American billing address.

No doubt there will be some way to work around this silliness, and eventually Apple will discover that it is not selling books abroad because they actually are not for sale. But for now the  eager young IT chaps at the Apple store could offer no help, and it was all they could do to suppress their irritation and keep up a facade of "service."

October 01, 2010

Sruggling to Use a new Ipad

After the American Century

I could not wait for Ipad finally to come into the stores in Denmark, so I bought one elsewhere. The new device is sleek and smart in its layout, easy to use, and light to carry. There is just one problem. The WiFi signal has to be strong and nearby for it to connect you to anything. Anything at all. During the first 48 hours with my new Ipad, I have been in five locations trying to use it. Only one place, a coffee shop, worked well. Two WiFi sites did not work at all, and a train that claims to have WiFi did not work either.  In other words, the more expensive Ipad almost has to be purchased if you want to have reasonable service - I mean the one that connects like both a telephone and a laptop, not like a laptop only. The jury is still out.

Reviewers of these new IT devices invariably have superb WiFi at home and in the office, and they live in places like Silicon Valley or New York City, where the signals are not just everywhere but strong. Most of the world is not like that.

Furthermore, my Ipad connects particularly poorly on rainy days, which apparently affects the signal in some way that experience says is very real, even though my sense of the technology is that rain really should not make such a difference. Perhaps this is why the Ipad is delayed in getting to Denmark, which has been known to have rain more than California.

So, the jury is out, but so far my Ipad experience has mostly been waiting in vain for the wireless connection to work. Apple surely erred in providing no way to use the trusty direct wired hookup. Not trendy enough? Not mobile enough? Perhaps not, but a wire works.