June 07, 2013

The Meaning of Obama's Massive Phone Monitoring: Is this Telegate?

After the American Century                                                                                                                                                          

I have meditated a good deal today on the massive phone monitoring effort by the US government. This cannot simply be explained away as a legacy of the Bush years, for apparently the efforts have intensified during the Obama Administration. Here are some thoughts about what this may mean.


Practical. When millions of phone calls are being monitored every day, the sheer amount of data collected requires an enormous investment in equipment and a large staff to deal with the flood of information. Alternately, if there is not a large staff, then the information cannot be analyzed and used. Billions of dollars must be spent on this cyber defense system, and one wonders if spying on millions of people is the best way to spend this money or to make the country safe.

Anti-Terrorism as a justification. The justification for gathering all this information, and also apparently for monitoring hundreds of journalists, is the need for greater security. This sort of argument is impossible to refute, since it relies on unstated dangers and secret information that by definition the public cannot know about. The public is just supposed to trust the government receives real security benefits from the information gathered. Yet one cannot feel at ease with this situation, for it violates the basic rules of the American democratic system, which is built not on blind trust but a free press that serves as a watchdog. A government that spies on journalists and citizens does not inspire their confidence. 

The Bill of Rights. It is often said that the Constitution does not explicitly protect privacy. This is true, but the First Amendment does protect free speech (hardly encouraged by monitoring phone calls) and the Fourth Amendment specifically protects citizens against searches and seizures. Tracking phone calls, wire-tapping, and the like are arguably a form of search and a seizure of information. The fourth amendment reads in full, "The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, and no Warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause, supported by Oath or affirmation, and particularly describing the place to be searched, and the persons or things to be seized." Who can possibly believe that the government has defined "the place to be searched" in specific and personal terms for the millions whom they have been spying upon? I do not feel secure in "my papers and effects," which it is surely plausible to translate into today's world as secure in my digital documents and electronic communications.

Obama's Authority is eroded by these revelations.  He has weakened his presidency, and in so doing becomes a little less able to inspire the confidence of citizens or of allies. Unhappily, these revelations must be contemplated almost immediately after the public learned that the Internal Revenue Service may also have abused its powers. Time and investigations will show whether there is a pattern here, but the combination of the IRS scandal, the scandal over listening in on hundreds of journalists, and the telephone call monitoring suggests widespread arrogance in the executive branch. Given the Congressional deadlock on many issues, a weakening of the president's authority, as well as the distraction these scandals are causing, all diminishes the chances for compromises and legislative achievements.

The Bottom Line. The problems of the Obama Administration are to a considerable degree of its own making. Presidential second terms are often difficult, and this one seems to be no exception. Think of Lyndon Johnson after his re-election, when antiwar protests dogged his every step. Think of Richard Nixon's second term, engulfed by Watergate. Think of Reagan's second term, and Irangate. Think of Bill Clinton's scandal-ridden second term and the attempted impeachment. And finally, think of George W. Bush's second term, when his approval ratings sank below 25%. Since 1963, not one  president found a way to escape controversy and unpopularity in a second term. Obama unfortunately seems headed toward a similar fate. One senses that there will be more revelations, in what one might call "Telegate."

May 10, 2013

Public paralysis but private empowerment?

After the American Century                                                                                                                                                                      

These seem to be strange times. President Obama seems unable to close the Guantanamo prison, after five years, in good part because other countries are resisting taking on any of the remaining prisoners. He seems unable to push through a gun control control bill, due to the powerful pro-gun lobby ed by the National Rifle Association. He is struggling to get an immigration bill through. Some columnists are suggesting that he is already a lame duck, but in fact it is Congress that is lame, very lame. 

Meanwhile, in foreign policy, the president has so far managed to avoid getting entangled in Syria, while trying to extricate the US from Afghanistan. The US left Iraq, but its troubles seem unabated. Possibly Iraq's non-existent weapons of mass destruction have been moved to Syria, but no one seems to know if they have poison gas or not, or which side may have used it. Meanwhile, Iran keeps developing its atomic weapons, while claiming not to. More generally, the Arab Spring, so-called, seems to be producing a harvest of religious fanatics, and it is hard to be upbeat about current events much of anywhere in the Middle East.

Yet while the president seems tied down by any number of outside factors at home and stymied in many foreign initiatives, the New York Times reports that hobbyist genetic engineers are trying to create trees that glow in the dark, and that might one day eventually replace public lighting. This tinkering with DNA seems mad, but it is happening. And a Dutch TV station and some private investors are conducting a lottery for a new kind of reality show that intends to select and train a crew to go to Mars. Perhaps they can take some seeds for those glowing trees with them, and plant them in patterns that spell out the names of corporate sponsors. More likely, the contestants who are sent to Mars, if any, are going to risk their lives for what, exactly?

It seems that private enterprise, clusters of people on the Internet, and rich individuals are becoming more and more powerful, while elected leaders are mired in political systems that make it difficult to act, unless there is a national emergency.  Public paralysis but private empowerment? This is a gloomy conclusion; I hope I am wrong.



April 18, 2013

Happy Birthday Leonardo da Vinci

After the American Century



April 15 was Leonardo da Vinci's birthday. Some years ago I was agreeably shocked to learn that I had been selected to receive the Leonardo da Vinci Medal. This is awarded to no more than one person each year, and in some years not awarded at all, by the Society for the History of Technology. There is no possibility of false humility in such a situation, for the humility is quite real and unavoidable. Make a list of all the many things Leonardo could do, and there is not one that I can do even remotely as well. Furthermore, what strikes me, when I think of Leonardo da Vinci, is that he was so interdisciplinary and able to work with a wide range of people to realize diverse projects. That he was extremely talented there can be no doubt, but just as important, perhaps, was his easy movement between, and transfer of ideas from, his various activities. Today scholars are pressured to specialize, but in his age there was apparently an easier flow of ideas and people, a mixing of artisans and the arts, of church and state, of military and civilian life, or of science, medicine, and technology. One finds Leonardo at one time or another involved with all of these and more.

For me or any modern scholar to receive a prize named after the person who embodied the ideal of the Renaissance man seems preposterous. If one of us manages to connect just a few fields – in my case a little art history, some literature, a smidgen of technology, and a large dose of history – this is not remotely in the same league with what Leonardo achieved.  I will never produce anything that will have the iconic status of the Mona Lisa, The Last Supper, or his drawing of Vitruvian Man, nor will I invent new devices, nor devise new military technologies, nor design bridges, or any of the rest of it.

In short, it is a humbling distinction to receive the Leonardo da Vinci Medal, because the more I or any recipient thinks about it, the less worthy we must feel.  One almost longs to have received an award named after a more obscurely famous person, in order to have a chance of withstanding the comparison.

Gradually, however, I have seen that it is an advantage to realize how impossible it is to live up to the name of this medal, no matter how much one has achieved. Since it is entirely hopeless to demonstrate, either before or after receiving it, that one really deserves the award, I feel released to keep on dong my bumbling best. And at least one can never receive an award named after an even more famous person. Who could that possibly be? Leonardo puts one so completely in the shade that no further distinctions or awards can stir up immodest delusions.  In its way, that is quite a benefit.

March 19, 2013

Tenth Anniversay of the War in Iraq: History will judge George Bush a Failure.

After the American Century

Ten years after the invasion of Iraq, it should be obvious that President George Bush made an enormous blunder. Thousands of American soldiers died, but far more than ten people from Iraq died for every American who perished.  The country is struggling with sectarian and ethnic divisions, and its enormous oil wealth has yet to lift it out of economic instability. The progress is slow, if, indeed, there is any progress.

There were no weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. Bush and the Republicans insisted there were. They were wrong. Did they lie, or were they incompetent?

Democracy did not blossom in Iraq once their dictator was removed. Bush and the Republicans, particularly the neo-conservatives, insisted that democracy would emerge out of the war. They were wrong.

Millions of Americans protested.  In February, 2003, during the buildup to the War, I marched twice against it, once in Cleveland and again in San Francisco. In each case, I had been invited to give a lecture, and happened to be in town when the marches took place. There were many such protests all across the US, including Boston, New York, Washington, Chicago, and also small cities such as South Bend, Indiana. We were ignored at the time, but we were right.

Protest in Manhattan Against the Iraq War, 2006

The claim was that the Americans would win a quick victory and that the occupation would not require too many troops. In fact, more people died after the war was officially declared to be over than during the war itself, and a large number of troops were needed for most of the last decade.

The cost of the war in Iraq was not financed by tax increases. Instead, Bush and the Republicans engaged in a form of fantasy economics, assuming that budget cuts would stimulate the economy so much that deficits would decline. Instead, US debt ballooned. At its worst, the Iraq War and occupation was costing $1 billion every day. Bush and the Republicans were wrong. They squandered money that they did not have.

History will not be kind to George Bush, nor should it be. Either he lied or he was misled about why the US went into the War. In judgement, he failed. In execution, he failed. The war was waged for the wrong reasons, and the peace was lost through further incompetence, including torture of prisoners, hiring corrupt contractors, and on and on.

Bush thought he was projecting American power, but instead he projected insensitivity, arrogance, and incompetence. His war caused enormous suffering; its full consequences are still unfolding. The wars in Afghanistan and Iraq probably made better relations with Iran impossible and made it easier for the hardline fundamentalists there to remain in power. The Kurds became semi-autonomous in eastern Iraq, but this created problems for Syria and Turkey, which have Kurdish minorities. Nationalism and religious fundamentalism are on the whole stronger in the region, while all the economies are weaker, except for those on the Arabian peninsula, with their oil wealth. If there is a silver lining emerging from the clouds of war, it is hard to see.







March 10, 2013

The Sequester and the Congress Are a Disgrace

After the American Century                                                                                                                                                      

The current deadlock in Washington is the result of a failed political process. In particular, the United States Senate has created rules that prevent it from getting anything done. The House is little better. The public watches with a mixture of amusement, anger, and despair. The poll ratings for Congress are so low one might think the United States had a legislature made up of appointed political hacks. Could intelligent and dedicated politicians really produce anything as inane as the Sequester?

Neither Americans nor the rest of the world can respect such legislative incompetence. A Chinese cartoonist depicted the situation this way in The China Daily:


In Britain, The Economist concluded, "The rather camp-themed scenario in which Congress tries to force itself into behaving with the spectre of whips and cattle prods ends with the US economy handcuffed to the bed and no immediate prospect of escape."  The Economist makes the spectacle sound a bit kinky, but I find it just sad. What investor or voter can be inspired by such intransigence and incompetence? The economy is improving, and the unemployment rate is falling, but the sequester threatens to undermine the recovery. European nations have tried austerity measures based on analysis, perhaps mistaken analysis, but some thought went into it, and they have failed. The US now has embraced mindless, robotic austerity measures, which one assumes are certain to fail, though the American economy is actually doing better than it should, under the circumstances.

The automatic across the board cutbacks that are imposed by the Sequester Agreement are literally mindless. Rather than take a hard look at Federal spending, the cutbacks make no distinction between programs that are working and useful, those that are pork, or those that have outlived their original purpose. Uniform cuts, in the end do not make any sense. Should the government build half an aircraft carrier or half a fighter plane? Should school children get lunch some days but not others? To put it another way: are all the things the government does of equal value? Are all of them of equal urgency? Do all of them stimulate job creation to the same degree? Do all of the government's programs have an equally beneficial effect on the environment? Clearly the answer to all of these questions is "NO."  Some programs create jobs and have a multiplier effect, and others retard economic growth. Some prevent pollution, others create it.  

The job of the legislature is to make intelligent choices between programs. Which ones should be funded, and to what extent? But Congress is in dereliction of its duty. It has ceased to function intelligently. It avoids choices. It does not engage in intelligent debate followed by compromise. It has abdicated responsibility and allowed uniform, mindless cuts in every program. 
The current US Congress is a disgrace.

February 18, 2013

Centennial of the American Assembly Line, 1913-2013

After the American Century

 The assembly line was invented in 1913 and has been in continuous operation ever since. It has spread to every industrial nation and has become the most familiar form of mass production. Some corporations that adopted it made enormous profits; others went bankrupt. It has been praised as a boon to all working men and women, yet it has also been condemned as a merciless form of exploitation. It has inspired novels, poems, popular songs, and even a short symphonic work, but it has also inspired satire and visions of apocalypse. It was embraced by both Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union, yet Americans believed that the production lines of Detroit ensured the victory of democracy in both World War II and the Cold War. More recently, it was reinvented in Japan and exported back to the United States as lean production.

Early example of moving assembly line
As the assembly line spread, its effects varied. Between 1914 and 1940 a few nations and some industries embraced it rapidly, others slowly, and some not at all. European nations adopted it more slowly, even after World War II, preferring the flexibility of skilled workers over the standardization of semi-skilled work on assembly lines. In more recent decades, mass- production industries have gradually moved away from the expensive labor markets of Western Europe and the United States to less costly venues in Asia and Latin America. Once the engine of US prosperity, the assembly line now increasingly drives competing economies elsewhere. Its complex social and economic effects have become global.
Bomber production during World War II


The assembly line emerged in a specific place (Detroit), at a specific time (between 1908 and 1913), in a specific industry (the automobile industry). But it also expressed trends in American society that can be discerned during the nineteenth century. It was the culmination of decades of labor-saving devices, new management ideas, improvements in metal alloys, increasing precision in machine tools, and experimentation with production. Yet that this form of production should be invented in the United States was not inevitable. The elements that came together to form the assembly line could also be found in France, in Germany, and in Britain. Any of the other industrial nations might have hit upon it first. Nevertheless, the United States proved particularly suitable for its emergence. A cultural context either fosters or resists a new technology. Before Henry Ford was born, speed, acceleration, innovation, interchangeable parts, uniformity, and economies of scale already were valued in the United States, where the values that the assembly line would embody were woven into everyday life. 

The assembly line was created at Ford’s factories was not a final result, but a part of an ongoing cultural process. America's Assembly Line is a centennial history of this central technology and its effects on work, leisure, and everyday life.

David E. Nye, America's Assembly Line    MIT Press
Feb 15, 2013
0262018713  978-0262018715

"To make sense of their twenty-first-century world, people need to understand the profound influence of the twentieth-century technology known as the assembly line. David Nye's sweeping analysis of the origins and development of 'the line' is the place to start." -- Robert Casey, former Senior Curator of Transportation, Henry Ford Museum


"It is hard to think of a manufacturing technology that has had a greater economic and social impact than the moving assembly line. In America's Assembly Line, David Nye shows us how this new technology emerged, expanded, stalled, and was reinvented, setting in train the age of mass production and consumerism as well as many of the subsequent environmental problems we experience today. Nye's beautifully nuanced and perceptive treatment of the subject indicates why he is one of the most distinguished historians of technology and culture working today." -- Merritt Roe Smith, Cutten Professor of the History of Technology, MIT


"Crafted with immense erudition, America's Assembly Line is a fascinating cultural history, combining extensive archival research and theoretical sophistication. Nye shows how America's growing economy in the twentieth century was powered by the assembly line and how deeply this 'general purpose technology' was intertwined with American culture, from the exuberance of the Rockettes to the dysphoria of the American worker. He offers a lucid, historically informed reading of the problems that beset America today, in a changed global economy that has adapted assembly-line technology to its advantage even as the American worker has been marginalized." -- Miles Orvell, Temple University, author of The Death and Life of Main Street: Small Towns in American Memory, Space, and Community

Available at these and other booksellers:

February 12, 2013

The Geography of American Invention

After the American Century                                                                                                                                                        

A new study from the Brookings Institution reveals that a relatively small part of the United States produces most of its patents. As reported in the New York Times, the Census Bureau divides the nation into 370 "metropolitan statistical areas" but two out of every three patents is produced in just 20 places. 


It is even more interesting to study the top five of these 370 areas. Those with "the most patent filings per million people, from 2007 to 2011, were San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, California; Burlington-South Burlington, Vermont; Rochester, Minnesota; Corvallis, Oregon; and Boulder, Colorado." None of these places are large cities. All are attractive small cities, in beautiful natural settings where it is more desirable to live than most other locations in the US. All of them have universities and/or large medical centers at their core. All of these places now are, or at least once were, less expensive than major cities. In short, these are upscale, attractive areas with highly educated populations in smaller cities. The extremes of urbanism or rural life are not represented. These are middle landscapes that talented people will choose to live in or that they will be happy to move to. Not Philadelphia, but Princeton. Not New York City, but Ithaca. Not Denver but Boulder.

Patents per worker, 2011


In such locations innovative people can afford to live and to establish offices or labs more easily than in the large cities. In such places they also can find like-minded  innovators more easily than in large cities. These smaller places have a critical mass of talent, but not much heavy industry such as steel mills, and they have less traffic and better public schools than most places.

The implications for other nations need to be underscored. Rather than try to make Europe's largest cities the centers of innovation, it makes more sense to look for smaller university towns analogous to Austin, Burlington, Boulder, or Corvallis. In Denmark the potential for innovation per capita should therefore be higher in Aalborg or Odense than in Copenhagen. In Britain, innovation should flourish not in London or Manchester but in Cambridge or York. 

Furthermore, the study shows that it is much smarter for a city to invest in research universities than in football stadiums or downtown shopping malls. Stadiums represent the "build it and the consumers will come" school of thought. However, fans and consumers may go elsewhere. Universities generate patents and new businesses that create new sources of income, jobs, and production, with consumption an inevitable by-product of the high incomes characteristic of such communities.

This is not to say that no innovation takes place in large cities. Of course it does. But in the United States the most innovative locations have other demographics.

The Brookings Institution report can be found here.