What next for Snowden in the limbo of Moscow? Asylum or disapperance?

After the American Century                                                                                                                   

What will happen to Mr. Snowden, still  in  Moscow?

One possibility is that he retains one or two big revelations as bargaining chips, in hopes that he can use them to gain a safe harbor. Moscow does not seem to be exactly that sort of place, given the treatment of journalists there, and the continuance of the Tsarist tradition of sending critics to prison. Putin-land is surely not the ideal location for a whistle blower. He might want to trade secrets for security in Russia, but other nations could be interested, depending on what he might have.

South American destinations have been in the news, more likely Ecuador, Venezuela, Peru or Bolivia than Chile, Argentina, or Brazil. Considering these possibilities underlines the nature of the problem. A large and important country is not likely to burden itself with the difficulty of entertaining Mr. Snowden. A small country probably would not likely think the risk had any payoff. Only a small to medium-sized nation that is somewhat independent of the US, probably with a left-leaning government (Venezuela comes to mind), is a likely safe haven.  Back in the Cold War, there were a few nations in Europe that might have been possible. Yugoslavia would have been ideal and Finland or even Sweden might then have been possible.

Assume, for the moment, that Mr. Snowden does find permanent asylum. Then what? He will  be a fish out of water. He will need to learn the language and the culture. He will need a job, perhaps not a difficulty since he has real computer skills. He presumably will also need protection. Soon, his knowledge of US National Security will be out-of-date and of no interest to any foreign power. He will then be of only symbolic value to the host nation, someone that they can point to as proof that they are tolerant, freedom-loving, and critical of Uncle Sam. 

Presumably Snowden hoped for more when he decided to give up his well-paying job in Hawaii and become a whistle-blower. Surely he imagined that the revelations he brought would be so shocking that major powers would come to his rescue. Perhaps they are, albeit behind the scenes. One could imagine that Germany or France might quietly prefer to have a chance to talk with him. (Since writing this he has met with the Germans.) But if so, this is all likely behind thick veils of secrecy. 

Snowden might have expected a groundswell of popular support, which in part has materialized both inside the US and abroad. The US officially wants him captured and brought back to stand trial, but does Obama really want such a media circus? A trial would delight the Republicans and erode the unity of the Democratic Party, because those on the left would tend to see Snowden as a martyr. Indeed, the best thing for Obama might be to have Snowden end up in some banana republic where he could be depicted as a fugitive from justice, and where he could then gradually fade from public attention. 

Following this line of thought, it is perhaps not entirely disagreeable to Obama to have Snowden malingering in Moscow. Where are the Russian whistle-blowers, after all, but in prisons? Snowden without assistance can neither escape nor fade conveniently away. But the latter is actually what Putin and perhaps Obama might eventually prefer. Give the man a facelift, new identity, exile, and anonymity. If he disappears without a trace, he would have little incentive to reappear on the world stage.

Snowden's disappearance would not be justice, and it would would not reconcile the massive security he uncovered with the ideals of democracy. But it has a certain noir elegance worthy of a novel.

The Poor Use of Energy in the Middle East

After the American Century                                                                                                                  

The consumption of energy is a topic usually taken up when discussing China or the United States. Yet the Middle East is not only a major oil-producing region, but an important consumer of oil and natural gas. Unlike the United States or China, however, higher use has not been accompanied by improved energy efficiency.

Doha Qatar, night view

The following table shows the growth in CO2 emissions for OECD Europe, the United States, China, and the Middle East, from 1980 until 2000.  Recent statistics are more fragmentary, but they strongly suggest that the relative positions in this table (ranked according to how close they have come to sustainable growth)  have changed little since 2000. OECD Europe is still the only large region or nation that has come close to achieving sustainable growth, although the United States has begun to do better since 2008.

   Growth in CO2 emissions, selected nations and regions, 1980-2000

 

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Selected Region / nation	Population growth (annual)	GDP % growth (annual)	Energy Intensity Change (annual)	Carbon Intensity Change (annual)	growth CO2  Emissions (Annual)	20 year growth in CO2 emissions 1980 = 100
OECD Europe	0.53	1.73	- 1.00	- 1.06	0.18	103.7
United States	0.96	2.15	- 1.64	- 0.21	1.23	127.7
World	1.60	1.28	- 1.12	- 0.45	1.30	129.5
China	1.37	8.54	- 5.22	- 0.26	4.00	219.1
Middle East	2.98	0.04	2.45	- 1.14	4.34	233

The far right-hand column indicates the overall growth in CO2 for each region. It becomes immediately clear, The Middle East, aside from all its political problems, also has serious problems with energy misuse, in good part because oil and gas are abundant in the region. Their price is kept low, and with an annual population growth rate of almost 3%, there are millions more people using energy in the Middle East. More recent statistics show that between 1980 and 2010 Middle East use of oil and natural gas has quadrupled.

Moreover, in stark contrast to all the other regions listed, the Middle East is the only place were energy is being used more carelessly and less efficiently. Look at the third column, "energy intensity" which measures such things as whether cars get fewer or more miles per gallon, whether appliances use more or less electricity to accomplish a task, and so on. In the world as a whole, energy intensity is improving. In China, dramatic improvements in energy intensity do a great deal to offset the enormous increase in GDP. As a result of this factor and lower population growth,  CO2 emissions did not increase as fast in China as they did in the Middle East.

The Middle East has long been increasing CO2 pollution levels faster than Europe, the United States, or China, even though the region's economies as a group scarcely expanding. The population grows, but the economy scarcely holds even. Rising energy use is not part of a dynamic growth economy, as in China or East Asia. 

If one drills down to the national level, the Middle East  dissolves into contrasting oil-rich economies and oil-poor economies, and into sharply divided social classes. But that is not my subject. I merely want to emphasize the failure of the Middle East as a whole to develop efficient energy use. Despite a view highly-publicized solar projects and windmills, almost all energy consumption remains oil and natural gas. For thirty years the Middle East has gone down the path of unsustainable stasis, when most other economies have sought sustainable growth. 

See also: Technology: Energy Rationing or Quotas?  America vs. Europe, 2100 

The Meaning of Obama's Massive Phone Monitoring: Is this Telegate?

After the American Century                                                                                                                                                          

I have meditated a good deal today on the massive phone monitoring effort by the US government. This cannot simply be explained away as a legacy of the Bush years, for apparently the efforts have intensified during the Obama Administration. Here are some thoughts about what this may mean.

Practical. When millions of phone calls are being monitored every day, the sheer amount of data collected requires an enormous investment in equipment and a large staff to deal with the flood of information. Alternately, if there is not a large staff, then the information cannot be analyzed and used. Billions of dollars must be spent on this cyber defense system, and one wonders if spying on millions of people is the best way to spend this money or to make the country safe.

Anti-Terrorism as a justification. The justification for gathering all this information, and also apparently for monitoring hundreds of journalists, is the need for greater security. This sort of argument is impossible to refute, since it relies on unstated dangers and secret information that by definition the public cannot know about. The public is just supposed to trust the government receives real security benefits from the information gathered. Yet one cannot feel at ease with this situation, for it violates the basic rules of the American democratic system, which is built not on blind trust but a free press that serves as a watchdog. A government that spies on journalists and citizens does not inspire their confidence. 

The Bill of Rights. It is often said that the Constitution does not explicitly protect privacy. This is true, but the First Amendment does protect free speech (hardly encouraged by monitoring phone calls) and the Fourth Amendment specifically protects citizens against searches and seizures. Tracking phone calls, wire-tapping, and the like are arguably a form of search and a seizure of information. The fourth amendment reads in full, "The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, and no Warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause, supported by Oath or affirmation, and particularly describing the place to be searched, and the persons or things to be seized." Who can possibly believe that the government has defined "the place to be searched" in specific and personal terms for the millions whom they have been spying upon? I do not feel secure in "my papers and effects," which it is surely plausible to translate into today's world as secure in my digital documents and electronic communications.

Obama's Authority is eroded by these revelations.  He has weakened his presidency, and in so doing becomes a little less able to inspire the confidence of citizens or of allies. Unhappily, these revelations must be contemplated almost immediately after the public learned that the Internal Revenue Service may also have abused its powers. Time and investigations will show whether there is a pattern here, but the combination of the IRS scandal, the scandal over listening in on hundreds of journalists, and the telephone call monitoring suggests widespread arrogance in the executive branch. Given the Congressional deadlock on many issues, a weakening of the president's authority, as well as the distraction these scandals are causing, all diminishes the chances for compromises and legislative achievements.

The Bottom Line. The problems of the Obama Administration are to a considerable degree of its own making. Presidential second terms are often difficult, and this one seems to be no exception. Think of Lyndon Johnson after his re-election, when antiwar protests dogged his every step. Think of Richard Nixon's second term, engulfed by Watergate. Think of Reagan's second term, and Irangate. Think of Bill Clinton's scandal-ridden second term and the attempted impeachment. And finally, think of George W. Bush's second term, when his approval ratings sank below 25%. Since 1963, not one  president found a way to escape controversy and unpopularity in a second term. Obama unfortunately seems headed toward a similar fate. One senses that there will be more revelations, in what one might call "Telegate."

Public paralysis but private empowerment?

After the American Century                                                                                                                                                                      

These seem to be strange times. President Obama seems unable to close the Guantanamo prison, after five years, in good part because other countries are resisting taking on any of the remaining prisoners. He seems unable to push through a gun control control bill, due to the powerful pro-gun lobby ed by the National Rifle Association. He is struggling to get an immigration bill through. Some columnists are suggesting that he is already a lame duck, but in fact it is Congress that is lame, very lame. 

Meanwhile, in foreign policy, the president has so far managed to avoid getting entangled in Syria, while trying to extricate the US from Afghanistan. The US left Iraq, but its troubles seem unabated. Possibly Iraq's non-existent weapons of mass destruction have been moved to Syria, but no one seems to know if they have poison gas or not, or which side may have used it. Meanwhile, Iran keeps developing its atomic weapons, while claiming not to. More generally, the Arab Spring, so-called, seems to be producing a harvest of religious fanatics, and it is hard to be upbeat about current events much of anywhere in the Middle East.

Yet while the president seems tied down by any number of outside factors at home and stymied in many foreign initiatives, the New York Times reports that hobbyist genetic engineers are trying to create trees that glow in the dark, and that might one day eventually replace public lighting. This tinkering with DNA seems mad, but it is happening. And a Dutch TV station and some private investors are conducting a lottery for a new kind of reality show that intends to select and train a crew to go to Mars. Perhaps they can take some seeds for those glowing trees with them, and plant them in patterns that spell out the names of corporate sponsors. More likely, the contestants who are sent to Mars, if any, are going to risk their lives for what, exactly?

It seems that private enterprise, clusters of people on the Internet, and rich individuals are becoming more and more powerful, while elected leaders are mired in political systems that make it difficult to act, unless there is a national emergency.  Public paralysis but private empowerment? This is a gloomy conclusion; I hope I am wrong.

Happy Birthday Leonardo da Vinci

After the American Century

April 15 was Leonardo da Vinci's birthday. Some years ago I was agreeably shocked to learn that I had been selected to receive the Leonardo da Vinci Medal. This is awarded to no more than one person each year, and in some years not awarded at all, by the Society for the History of Technology. There is no possibility of false humility in such a situation, for the humility is quite real and unavoidable. Make a list of all the many things Leonardo could do, and there is not one that I can do even remotely as well. Furthermore, what strikes me, when I think of Leonardo da Vinci, is that he was so interdisciplinary and able to work with a wide range of people to realize diverse projects. That he was extremely talented there can be no doubt, but just as important, perhaps, was his easy movement between, and transfer of ideas from, his various activities. Today scholars are pressured to specialize, but in his age there was apparently an easier flow of ideas and people, a mixing of artisans and the arts, of church and state, of military and civilian life, or of science, medicine, and technology. One finds Leonardo at one time or another involved with all of these and more.

For me or any modern scholar to receive a prize named after the person who embodied the ideal of the Renaissance man seems preposterous. If one of us manages to connect just a few fields – in my case a little art history, some literature, a smidgen of technology, and a large dose of history – this is not remotely in the same league with what Leonardo achieved.  I will never produce anything that will have the iconic status of the Mona Lisa, The Last Supper, or his drawing of Vitruvian Man, nor will I invent new devices, nor devise new military technologies, nor design bridges, or any of the rest of it.

In short, it is a humbling distinction to receive the Leonardo da Vinci Medal, because the more I or any recipient thinks about it, the less worthy we must feel.  One almost longs to have received an award named after a more obscurely famous person, in order to have a chance of withstanding the comparison.

Gradually, however, I have seen that it is an advantage to realize how impossible it is to live up to the name of this medal, no matter how much one has achieved. Since it is entirely hopeless to demonstrate, either before or after receiving it, that one really deserves the award, I feel released to keep on dong my bumbling best. And at least one can never receive an award named after an even more famous person. Who could that possibly be? Leonardo puts one so completely in the shade that no further distinctions or awards can stir up immodest delusions.  In its way, that is quite a benefit.

Tenth Anniversay of the War in Iraq: History will judge George Bush a Failure.

After the American Century

Ten years after the invasion of Iraq, it should be obvious that President George Bush made an enormous blunder. Thousands of American soldiers died, but far more than ten people from Iraq died for every American who perished.  The country is struggling with sectarian and ethnic divisions, and its enormous oil wealth has yet to lift it out of economic instability. The progress is slow, if, indeed, there is any progress.

There were no weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. Bush and the Republicans insisted there were. They were wrong. Did they lie, or were they incompetent?

Democracy did not blossom in Iraq once their dictator was removed. Bush and the Republicans, particularly the neo-conservatives, insisted that democracy would emerge out of the war. They were wrong.

Millions of Americans protested.  In February, 2003, during the buildup to the War, I marched twice against it, once in Cleveland and again in San Francisco. In each case, I had been invited to give a lecture, and happened to be in town when the marches took place. There were many such protests all across the US, including Boston, New York, Washington, Chicago, and also small cities such as South Bend, Indiana. We were ignored at the time, but we were right.

Protest in Manhattan Against the Iraq War, 2006

The claim was that the Americans would win a quick victory and that the occupation would not require too many troops. In fact, more people died after the war was officially declared to be over than during the war itself, and a large number of troops were needed for most of the last decade.

The cost of the war in Iraq was not financed by tax increases. Instead, Bush and the Republicans engaged in a form of fantasy economics, assuming that budget cuts would stimulate the economy so much that deficits would decline. Instead, US debt ballooned. At its worst, the Iraq War and occupation was costing $1 billion every day. Bush and the Republicans were wrong. They squandered money that they did not have.

History will not be kind to George Bush, nor should it be. Either he lied or he was misled about why the US went into the War. In judgement, he failed. In execution, he failed. The war was waged for the wrong reasons, and the peace was lost through further incompetence, including torture of prisoners, hiring corrupt contractors, and on and on.

Bush thought he was projecting American power, but instead he projected insensitivity, arrogance, and incompetence. His war caused enormous suffering; its full consequences are still unfolding. The wars in Afghanistan and Iraq probably made better relations with Iran impossible and made it easier for the hardline fundamentalists there to remain in power. The Kurds became semi-autonomous in eastern Iraq, but this created problems for Syria and Turkey, which have Kurdish minorities. Nationalism and religious fundamentalism are on the whole stronger in the region, while all the economies are weaker, except for those on the Arabian peninsula, with their oil wealth. If there is a silver lining emerging from the clouds of war, it is hard to see.

The Sequester and the Congress Are a Disgrace

After the American Century                                                                                                                                                      

The current deadlock in Washington is the result of a failed political process. In particular, the United States Senate has created rules that prevent it from getting anything done. The House is little better. The public watches with a mixture of amusement, anger, and despair. The poll ratings for Congress are so low one might think the United States had a legislature made up of appointed political hacks. Could intelligent and dedicated politicians really produce anything as inane as the Sequester?

Neither Americans nor the rest of the world can respect such legislative incompetence. A Chinese cartoonist depicted the situation this way in The China Daily:

In Britain, The Economist concluded, "The rather camp-themed scenario in which Congress tries to force itself into behaving with the spectre of whips and cattle prods ends with the US economy handcuffed to the bed and no immediate prospect of escape."  The Economist makes the spectacle sound a bit kinky, but I find it just sad. What investor or voter can be inspired by such intransigence and incompetence? The economy is improving, and the unemployment rate is falling, but the sequester threatens to undermine the recovery. European nations have tried austerity measures based on analysis, perhaps mistaken analysis, but some thought went into it, and they have failed. The US now has embraced mindless, robotic austerity measures, which one assumes are certain to fail, though the American economy is actually doing better than it should, under the circumstances.

The automatic across the board cutbacks that are imposed by the Sequester Agreement are literally mindless. Rather than take a hard look at Federal spending, the cutbacks make no distinction between programs that are working and useful, those that are pork, or those that have outlived their original purpose. Uniform cuts, in the end do not make any sense. Should the government build half an aircraft carrier or half a fighter plane? Should school children get lunch some days but not others? To put it another way: are all the things the government does of equal value? Are all of them of equal urgency? Do all of them stimulate job creation to the same degree? Do all of the government's programs have an equally beneficial effect on the environment? Clearly the answer to all of these questions is "NO."  Some programs create jobs and have a multiplier effect, and others retard economic growth. Some prevent pollution, others create it.  

The job of the legislature is to make intelligent choices between programs. Which ones should be funded, and to what extent? But Congress is in dereliction of its duty. It has ceased to function intelligently. It avoids choices. It does not engage in intelligent debate followed by compromise. It has abdicated responsibility and allowed uniform, mindless cuts in every program. 

The current US Congress is a disgrace.