Three possible results of the Trump Impeachment Process

After the American Century

"Intolerance," by Maurice Sterne, 1941 

US Department of Justice, Main Library, Washington

Photo: Carol Highsmith

The Law: The Constitution dictates that only if two-thirds of the Senate find a person guilty can they be convicted of an impeachable offense. The Senate cannot fine or imprison a guilty party. The only penalty it can impose is a ban from holding public office. Other punishment is left to the courts.

Scenario 1: All the Democrats and at least 17 Republicans vote against Trump, making him the first president ever to be found guilty by the Senate. Richard Nixon resigned rather than face such a vote. Andrew Johnson was almost impeached and convicted by a Republican dominated Senate in 1868. There were 35 votes against Johnson (guilty) and 19 for him (not guilty). The Republicans needed just one more vote, but did not get it. Historically speaking, a president has never been convicted. The founding fathers intentionally made it difficult, requiring not a mere majority but a very large majority, in order to avoid impeachment becoming a matter of mere partisanship. 

    For Trump to be convicted, additional evidence will need to be presented during the trial, evidence so damning that it would force Republicans to repudiate him. Given the several week delay in starting the proceedings, it seems possible that Democrats might find such a smoking gun. For example, there might be a phone call or an email that links Trump directly to those who invaded the Houses of Congress. Conviction would divide the Republican Party into two irreconcilable camps, in the short term, but as happened after they repudiation of Nixon, the GOP would be in a position to revive and move on. This is a bitter pill for Republicans, but it the best option for them in the long run, and also for the nation.

Scenario 2: A majority of the Senate votes to convict Trump, but that majority falls short of 67 votes.  Instead, he could be taken to court on related charges and found guilty. For example, he might be charged with incitement to riot and being an accessory to the murder of one or more of the people who died in the attack on Congress. In addition, there are other court cases awaiting Trump, notably in New York State. A court conviction of any kind would weaken Trump and keep Republicans in turmoil, and might lengthen the struggle for control of their party until the 2024 elections. Normally, the party in power loses some seats to years after winning the presidency, but if the Republicans are internally at war, the Democrats would have a chance to win additional power the 2022 Congressional elections. 

Scenario 3: Trump is neither convicted by the Senate nor convicted of any crime in court. He could present himself as a victim of left-wing conspiracy. His supporters would feel righteously justified, and his control of a majority of the Republican Party would continue. The result, Trump will re-energize his base, while the country remains deeply split.

Which possibility is most likely? 

Scenario 1 is not very plausible, but it is Plan A for both Democrats and few Republicans who want to escape Trumpism. However, there are not 17 Republican Senators who look likely to convict Trump. Unless dramatic new evidence is presented to the Senate.

√ Scenario 2 is the most likely. In that case, Trump will only lose some support because of the impeachment trial and lose a bit more after being convicted of economic crimes, such as fraud, tax fraud, or money laundering. (There are apparently many other possibilities, too.) This would keep Republicans split and be good for the Democrats in 2022.  

Note added 15 Feb: This is indeed what happened.

Scenario 3 is possible, but not likely. Democratic Party leaders have a good idea of what court cases Trump will face after his trial in the Senate.  It seems exceedingly likely that he will face prosecution, and for that reason, the Democrats can take the high ground and demand an impeachment trial before the Senate, knowing Trump will soon be tied up in more litigation afterwards.

Whatever happens, the punishment of Donald Trump has, in all likelihood, only just begun,

Impeachment and the Republican Party

After the American Century

It is not only Donald Trump who is on trial. The Republican Party spent four years overlooking his many illegal actions and bullying tactics. They will also be tested, and unfortunately they will probably disgrace themsleves. For they surrendered to Trumpism, with only a few exceptions. They wanted power more than they wanted truth. Now the 50 Republican Senators will have to decide if they care about how they will be remembered. Historians will not be kind to those who continue to support Trump,, who say that the election was rigged, who claim Trump really won, who pretend against all common sense and a great deal of evidence that the attack on the halls of Congress had so little to do with Trump that he is not responsible for it.  

Liquidation Sale, Trump Taj Mahal Casino in Atlantic City

Now I write this as someone who grew up in a Republican family, and whose father and mother were both elected as Republicans. My father was elected to the town school board and my mother was elected a Justice of the Peace. That was back in the 1960s, when many Republicans, including my parents, supported Civil Rights, full equality for women, and scientific research. My mother taught biology and my father taught engineering. They would be horrified to see what the Republican Party has become.

When Trump goes on trial, the big question is not whether or not he is guilty. He has committed so many crimes that whole books will be published analyzing them. The real question is whether the Republican Party can separate itself from his brutal tactics and his inability to tell the truth. 

Does that sound like an exaggeration? The Washington Post has made a list of the lies that Trump has told. They found that the number of  lies increased with each year.  Trump averaged six false statements a day during 2017, 16 a day in 2018, 22 a day in 2019, and 27 a day in 2020. By election day he had made about 25,000 false statements during his time in office, creating an alternative reality for this followers.

Many of these lies were exaggerations. The most common one was that the American economy was “the best in history.” By 2020 this escalated to the repeated claim that it was “the best economy in the history of the world.” The second most common lie – 262 times – was that the border wall with Mexico was being built. In fact, only a few miles of new wall had been built by May 2020. Fragments of existing barriers were rebuilt, but they were hardly impregnable. In 2020, Trump repeated 38 times that the wall was almost completed. The third most common lie was that his tax cut was the largest in American history, but economists calculated that it was the eighth largest, and not even one third as large as Ronald Reagan’s tax legislation in 1981. Trump did not explain to his crowds that the lion’s share of his tax cuts were for the wealthiest 2 percent of the population. (For more on Trump's presidency, see The United (and Divided) States,  especially the final three chapters.)

Lying became the basis of Trump's campaign and his most common form of attack on other people. Of course, the biggest lie was that he had won the election, but it had been stolen from him. It appears that after the election he was unable to separate that lie from the truth, a sad development for him, and a catastrophe for his followers and the Republican Party, which in the fall of 2020 was fast becoming more a cult than a political organization. 

When the impeachment process begins in two weeks, the central question will be whether the Republicans will continue to live a lie, or whether they can begin the harder process of acting like a political party again, a party that respects education and science, a party that argues from facts rather than invent convenient "alternative facts," a party that does not embrace extreme right-wing zealots who think it is patriotic to attack the Congress, or, in short, a party that people like my parents would recognize and want to be part of.  As for me, I gave up on the Republicans in the Richard Nixon years, though there were some honorable men and women among them. That was decades ago. It has now become a threat to democracy. May it find a way to reform itself. 

But don't hold your breath. The Trump brand is as bankrupt as his casino hotel in Atlantic City, but more than 60 million Republican voters could not see it.

The United (and Divided) States

After the American Century

This week my new book appears - The United (and Divided) States. It examines the reasons for the sharp divisions in American society. The first chapter looks at the differences between six generations in the first chapter, starting with the "Greatest Generation" that was born before 1927 and is now rapidly disappearing from the scene, and ending with  emerging Generation Z that voted for the first time in the 2020 elections. The generational divides are consequential, but there are even greater differences between classes, regions, and racial groups, all of which are explored in subsequent chapters. The middle section of the book then turns to look at the institutions and practices that used to hold Americans together, notably churches, civil religion, journalism, and business, all of which have been challenged in recent decades. The final three chapters then look closely at the American political system, the election of 2020, and the state of the (dis)union in 2021.  

For those readers who know my Contemporary American Society, which has appeared in 9 editions since 1989, this is neither a revision (nor a replacement for) that work.  Rather, it focuses on the crisis of the present.

Gary Carlberg, Re-enactor of the
1863 Battle of Gettysburg

The book has color illustrations, including the one above taken of a re-enactor for the Battle of Gettysburg, a decisive battle in the Civil War in 1863. It is restaged every year in early July, and each re-enactor plays the part of a particular historical person. Gary Carlberg has taken the part of Col. William Colvill of the Union Army's First Minnesota Infantry.

To read more about American civil religion, see

https://www.akademisk.dk/united-and-divided-states-0#tlt[1]=2702&tlt[2]=12650

Farewell to 2020. Happy New Year

After the American Century

A year ago no one had heard of COVID-19, and 2020 looked like it might be a good year. Like all new years, it had the benefit of the doubt. It was more than disappointing. Some good results. Donald Trump was defeated, even if he refused to believe it himself and constructed fantasy explanations. But he did a great deal of damage to the United States, the world's climate, and the credibility of democracy.

The pandemic has kept me in my house most of the year, starting in March. I completed one book and wrote another one. Both will appear in 2021. The work was my escape from tedium, from the haunting news stories of suffering, and from the mostly rainy weather. But compared to many people I was fine, and I appreciate that. 

2020 was a year to savor small pleasures and to grab the small opportunities for adventure that came along. The high point for me in this regard was an unexpected invitation to help a friend move a boat from Århus to Fåborg, a two day journey. As it turned out, these two days in June were the best two of the summer, in terms of sunshine and gentle winds. They were also two of the longest days of sunlight. My friend had just bought a small fiberglass sail boat, used, which had a motor that pushed us along at 5 knots, since there was little wind. There was a small area below where we kept some food and drink, and it could sleep two people. 

Sailing toward the Lillebælt Bridge, June, 2020

We did not spend the night, however, but put the boat in the Middelfart marina and went to our separate homes. The boat needed to be cleaned a bit and fitted up before it would be pleasant to spend the night. But it moved smoothly through the water, and I saw a few seals and two small whales. There were many islands that I had only seen on maps. A good bit of the time I held the tiller, but took directions from my friend, as he has sailed these waters for decades. Those two days also stand out, because due to the lockdown my wife and I could not take our vacation in the US, and no good options were available for the days she had off. 

The two day adventure on the sailboat turns out to be my most pleasant outdoor memory of 2020. But there were other good days, too, short rides and long walks in the local countryside. There was the pleasure of both working in the same place again, on different floors of the house, because my wife's employer was ordered to send everyone to work at home. This meant coffee breaks and lunch together for a change. I also walked around, 10,000 steps a day, all over town, avoiding the commercial areas, and often in the evenings during the long twilight of spring and summer. If it had not been for the pandemic, it would have been OK. 

Posting this on the last day of 2020, we can look forward to vaccination sometime in the spring. I might even get outside the country, if it is safe to travel. But in 2020 I learned to live within more narrow limits.

Five Proposed Amendments to the Constitution of the United States

After the American Century

The conduct of the Trump presidency has revealed the need for amendments to the US Constitution. The precise wording will require some fine-tuning, but here are my suggestions.

(1) The prompt and orderly transfer of power after an election being a paramount necessity for the preservation of public order and the practice of diplomacy with foreign governments, the declaration of who has won a presidential election shall not rest in the hands of the incumbent president, nor in those of a person appointed by that chief executive. Rather, the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court shall determine who has prevailed in the contest, and thereafter the successful candidate shall immediately have access to all the information necessary to prepare to take office, together with office space, a budget to pay the transition staff, and all other forms of assistance that can reasonably be necessary.

(2) If a president chooses to replace any member of the cabinet, a new appointee must appear within 60 days before the Senate to be examined and evaluated. In the meantime, an acting secretary may be appointed, but this person must already be a member of that department of government, and he or she cannot be a candidate for the position. An Acting Secretary shall always be identified by that title and cannot use the title of Secretary during the temporary period of his or her appointment.

(3) To ensure fairness and minimize outside interference in cases of impeachment that concern any person in the Executive Branch, in such cases the Department of Justice's investigation shall be funded and overseen not by the president but by the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court. 

(4) On the use of the presidential pardon. The President  cannot pardon himself nor members of his or her family, nor use the power of the pardon in cases that involve treason, espionage or tampering with an election, nor may the president pardon persons who worked for his or her political campaign or on the White House staff. 

(5) Trust in the electoral system being essential to any democracy, no candidate for federal office shall claim that an election was not properly conducted, "stolen," or otherwise compromised except when such statements are made in writing and under oath before a federal judge, together with substantiating evidence of the charges made. False or misleading statements about election officials or about the conduct of an election must be investigated by the Department of Justice and are subject to prosecution under the laws of perjury and slander. 

Protest! Time for all Americans to use their First Amendment Rights

After the American Century

By his recent actions, President Trump has lost all credibility. It is utter nonsense for him to claim he won the 2020 election. He has lost touch with reality, and he is intentionally subverting the democratic election process. 

It is time for ordinary citizens to use all of their First Amendment rights to protest Trump's bizarre attempt to subvert the election.

It is time to protest his refusal to fight the coronavirus pandemic.  Two thousand Americans died yesterday in that pandemic. Almost certainly 2,000 more will die tomorrow. Trump has done nothing for months, and his task force has done almost nothing.

I protest the continual lies and exaggerated statements made by President un-elect Trump. He will be remembered as the first president to refuse to accept an election loss, and as a man without honor who refused to help with an orderly transition of power.

I protest the media who repeat barefaced lies and encourage citizens to believe them, Fox News in particular. 

I protest the silence of the Republican Senators and many other Republican elected officials regarding Trump's behavior. It is time for the Republican Party to realize that their silence is consent. Every elected official who does nothing now is guilty of letting the government of the United States spin out of control. Bravo, Mitt Romney, for standing up almost alone and making his voice heard.

I protest the misuse of social media to slander the officials who conducted the election, and to spread false statements about the conduct and the results of the election. Social media need to be regulated and to prevent lies and slander from flourishing on their websites.

Lincoln in 1858

Abraham Lincoln declared in 1858 that "A house divided against itself cannot stand." Republicans are dividing the American house, and it cannot indefinitely survive if politics continue as they are now, At this moment, because of their refusal to cooperate on combatting the coronavirus, more than thousands of people are dying every day.  If American politicians cannot manage such an obvious crisis, what chance is there that they will come together to solve more complex social and economic problems? 

The Republicans are playing with fire. Already, it appears certain that the United States will emerge from the Trump years weaker and more divided than it was in 2016. Trump said he would "make American great again,." He has done just the opposite.  

The Trump Denial Regime

After the American Century

It seems possible that President Trump has had a mental breakdown. Who can offer a rational explanation for his behavior since he lost the election? He is hiding from the press and public, while sending out odd messages on Twitter. He really seems to believe that he won the election that he lost.  He appears to be in the grip of a conspiracy theory that seems to be a paranoid misreading of reality. He lost the popular vote by more than 5 million votes and he lost the electoral vote as well. Some commentators have said that he is "in denial," as if this is all right. 

It is not all right for the commander in chief to sulk for weeks after losing an election. It is not all right for him to mislead millions of Americans with claims of election fraud that are unsubstantiated by any evidence. He has lost all the court cases brought so far, and most of the lawyers who worked on them have withdrawn their services. Presumably, they realized that they were being used as part of a vast deception. 

It certainly is not all right to pretend that Trump is in his right mind. Millions of Americans are not at all certain that Mr. Trump is now rational or capable of making complex decisions. He gives no indication that he is performing his job as president. Quite the contrary. He is spending time playing golf but otherwise doing little more than repeating endlessly - obsessively - that he won the election. 

Meanwhile, more than 1,000 people are dying every day from the coronavirus. The President endlessly told the public that this is not a serious illness, that is was largely fake news, a bogus crisis.  Even after he got the coronavirus himself, he told his followers that it was nothing to worry about. It would cease to be a news story the day after the election, or so he said. Trump has led the public down that false road of denial, too.

The number who have died from the coronavirus in the US has already topped the death toll for the Korean War and the Vietnam War combined. The majority of these deaths could have been avoided, had the US had leadership as competent as in New Zealand, in Norway, in South Korea, or in Taiwan, all of which have had far lower death rates. But the Trump White House did not take a leadership role, it did not coordinate a national response, and it did not even give accurate information about the situation much of the time,  The Trump White House is responsible for the majority of these deaths.

In any other job, a person behaving irresponsibly would be sent to a psychological examination, and he would be relieved of his duties until he was well again. Amendment 25 of the Constitution sets forth the possibility that a president can be treated in a similar manner. In that case, the Vice President would assume the duties of the President.

Amendment 25 is not likely to be invoked, however, because the president has infected those around him with his fantasies. The White House and the Republican leadership seem to be collectively deluded in a way that is common in religious cults. No one wants to upset or offend Trump. This is the Republican Party that refused to call a single witness at the sham impeachment proceedings, in which the Senate did not allow a trial to take place. Trump the untouchable.

The Washington Post has kept a record of Trump's lies and exaggerations and has been unable to keep up with him, because he repeats the lies so often, at a rate of more than 25 a day. They estimate that he has lied 25,000 times during his 4 years in office. It seems doubtful that Trump and his millions of followers have much of a grip on reality any longer. They have heard the lies so often that they believe them all.

This paranoid president is self-absorbed, with little interest in the pandemic raging on his watch. This Republican Party is unable to separate itself from his delusions, and instead helps to spread them, creating a bubble of conspiracy theories and false accusations of fraud. The real fraud is the Republican leadership itself.  

The Republican Party will not live down this dark period for at least a generation. The United States will not regain respect on the world stage for years, either, assuming it manages to escape from this self-inflicted crisis of government. 

Who benefits from this chaos? Russia, China, and terrorists. The crisis allows all of them to construct a plausible sounding narrative, in which the United States is not really a democracy. This is the narrative of electoral fraud that Trump is selling and that the Republican Party seems unable to reject.