February 08, 2012

Election 2012: Passion Trumps Money - Santorum Resurgent in Minnesota, Colorado, and Missouri

After the American Century

A week is a long time in American politics. Two weeks ago Gingrich trounced Romney, and he seemed the emerging leader. One week ago Romney trounced Gingrich in Florida, and many pundits were saying that the race was all but over. Now this week Santorum has won not just one state but three, all in a single night. Minnesota, Missouri, and Colorado have all spoken with one voice. The Republicans there like the former Senator from Pennsylvania. This should not be such a surprise, because Santorum began this campaign with a strong showing in the Iowa heartland that turned into a victory on the recount. 

In the heartland they do not much like Romney. Perhaps it is because evangelicals are uncomfortable with his Mormonism. Perhaps it is because a rich investor is not their kind of guy. Perhaps he just does not pass the famous "beer test" - i.e. which of these candidates would the average voter most want to sit down and have a beer with? Romney, as a faithful Mormon, does not drink, suggesting that he is ultimately unelectable.

Samtorum has not won narrow victories. In Minnesota he had more votes than the next two candidates combined, with Romney running a weak third at just 16%. In Missouri Romney did somewhat better, with 25% of the vote, but Santorum also was stronger there, with 55% of the votes as I write this, with final results still pending. Colorado is still counting, but it seems that Santorum's win there is also assured, but the precise percentages are not yet forthcoming. With a third of the vote counted, Santorum has 42%, Romney 30%, and Gingrich 15%. Gingrich commented on these results, saying that Romney's attack advertising had hurt him and given Santorum a chance. 

Ron Paul also remains in the race, and can be encouraged by the fact that he beat Romney in Minnesota, to finish second. In Missouri and Colorado, however, he was last.

What do Santorum's victories mean? One way to get a grip on the race is to look at the delegate count, where Romney still has a commanding lead. But another, more important aspect of the situation is less tangible: momentum. Romney is losing it and Santorum is getting it. The Senator's supporters are passionate, and they have brought him these victories even though Romney spent far more money on advertising. But in caucuses passion trumps money every time.


February 01, 2012

Election 2012: The Long Game

After the American Century

So Romney has won Florida just as convincingly as Gingrich won South Carolina. But the race is not over. Far from it, for to win the nomination requires more than 1000 delegates, and Romeny has less than 100. Nevertheless, Romeny does have more money than his three rivals combined, and he has a strong organization up and running in each state. He was able to outspend Gingrich 5 to 1 in attack advertising, and Gingrich now has used up most of the millions he got from a Las Vegas casino owner and his wife. He claims to be a grassroots candidate, but so far the grassroots have not been sending in much money.

But Gingrich does have support in the Old South. He won in the Florida panhandle, which is the most southern part of that state, culturally speaking, precisely because it is the most northern part of the state, settled and developed by slaveholding families who joined in the Civil War. And Gingrich also can expect to do well in the primaries and caucuses of other southern states, such as his own Georgia, Alabama, etc. If he can also do well in the Mountain West, then Romney will have to outlast him.

For Gingrich the best scenario would be that Santorum soon drops out, due to lack of money and failure to do well since Iowa. His supporters would likely move to Gingrich, even if some of them might have to hold their noses to do so. On the other hand, Santorum may feel it is worth remaining in the race a while longer. He is not working at anything else, having lost his seat in the Senate, and by running he keeps himself before the nation, perhaps as a potential VP nominee. He may think that there is the possibility that Romney and Gingrich will discredit each other and Santorum can emerge as the alternative. 

And there is a big problem with Romney, from the point of view of a general election. The list of who gave money to his enormous PAC fund is now available for public scrutiny. It turns out the overwhelming majority of his backers are money men, investors, hedge-fund executives, and the link. Speculators. The very people who profited from the collapse of the economy. Americans are not exactly in love with bankers and hedge-funds at the moment. Not only did Romney run one of them, but people of this kind provide almost all of his campaign money. Many of them gave $1 million each. Expect Gingrich to remind the electorate. Often.

Meanwhile, Ron Paul keeps chugging along, with his 15% or so, which could become a factor at the National Convention. Imagine a scenario where neither Gringrich nor Romney has enough delegates, and they have to offer something to Paul to get his votes behind them on a second or third ballot. 

In short, this contest has the potential to last into the summer, especially if Gingrich can raise some money. The month of February is somewhat quieter than January, with just caucuses, and the focus shifts now to the longer game, with the first big test coming on Super Tuesday in March. Romney's money could be quite telling, as he will be able to saturate the airwaves of all the states with negative advertising, as he did in Florida. The many simultaneous primaries could be a decisive turning point. But then again, it might prolong the Republican agony and keep entertaining us until summer.




January 31, 2012

Review: Donald Hall, Unpacking the Boxes

After the American Century

I have just finished reading Donald Hall's fine memoir, Unpacking the Boxes (Houghton Mifflin, 2008). It is a fitting conclusion to the autobiographical vein in his work that began with his first book, String too Short to be Saved (1961)That book was about his summers on the New Hampshire farm where he helped his maternal grandparents. This one begins outside of New Haven, where his father worked as an accountant for a milk company owned by his grandfather. As so often happens, his two parents came from quite different worlds. In New Haven his mother drank cocktails and sought to emulate the middle class of the late 1920s and early 1930s. In New Hampshire, however, his mother felt at home, and soon, her son found that he preferred it as well.


Unpacking the Boxes was written from that same New Hampshire farm, which Hall inherited and moved into back in the 1970s. There he literally unpacks the boxes that contain every memento of his early life. This awakened memories of his early childhood and awakening to poetry. Even before he reached high school, Hall was passionately interested in words and writing, and his descriptions of his early embrace of the Muse is entwined with his equally passionate pursuit of girls. He admits that one of the attractions of being a poet when young was that young ladies found it quite appealing.

Hall proved a seriously productive writer, with, by my count, 15 books of poetry, two biographies, three plays, a dozen children's books, two collections of short stories, and six autobiographical works.

Hall spent two years at Exeter Academy, where his father sent him, determined that his only son should have any career he liked, and not waste another life entombed in the family dairy business. Young Hall was a prodigious worker, who already knew he wanted to be a poet. At Exeter, he steadily rose from almost failing grades in Latin and several other subjects to very high marks, winning a place at Harvard, where he also excelled. From there he had an enviable string of fellowships, with two years at Oxford, a year at Stanford, and then three more years at Harvard. In these student years he met many of the major poets of the generation ahead of him, such as Richard Wilbur and John Ciardi. Already by the time he reached Oxford he was something of a personage, taking on an editorial role as well as writing. He became a close friend of George Plimpton and at a young age was editor of poetry for his Paris Review. (The major poets whom he got to know at this time, notably Robert Frost, are the subject of another Hall memoir, Remembering Poets that I highly recommend.)

Hall might have said more about the confrontation between the Beat poets and the more classical or traditional poets, among whom Hall was a leader. Their differences were more poetical than political. Hall was Left leaning all through his career, and he admired the work of Walt Whitman, even if initially far more drawn to the great English Romantics such as Keats and the metaphysical poets. He belonged to that generation who felt it necessary to have read all the predecessors. At Harvard, for each weekly tutorial with Harry Levin he was to have read ALL the poetry by one person, William Blake for example, and be ready to discuss it intensely for an hour alone with the professor.

Hall's own work did change after his encounter with the Beat Generation, even if he remained closer to the classical tradition. I did not know that Hall became close friends with Robert Bly at Harvard, and their friendship endured to the present. I should have realized, because I did know that each of them went to Harvard, but somehow I never made the connection. Likewise, Hall was close to Galway Kinnell. These writers were closer in sensibility to the Beats, and their connection to him rightly suggests that Hall was not doctrinaire in his aesthetics. He knew and loved quality, and long before they were famous befriended the important emerging writers in the British Isles such as Ted Hughes and Seamus Heaney, as well.

In its first half, this is primarily an intellectual autobiography about a poet's coming of age. Then it divides c. 1970 when his first marriage fell apart. Yet another of Hall's books has already treated this middle period of his life in detail so he skips through it rather schematically, covering his arrival in Ann Arbor where he taught for the better part of a decade in far more detail than the decision to leave academia. He liked teaching but he longed to be a writer full time and managed to do this. In good part it was possible because he was so fortunate as to inherit the house and because he had a steady income from a good deal of prose writing. Notably, he wrote a fine book that I used myself in teaching writing, back in the early 1970s. Appropriately titled Writing Well, it remains one of the best introductory texts one can find.

The last half of the book is much darker than the first, colored by the long illness and death of his second wife, the poet Jane Kenyon, who passed away in 1995. She was 19 years younger than he, and Hall was devastated by the loss. The book is not light reading, as it describes how he remains in the house surrounded by constant reminders of her. He visits the grave every day for more than a year, and can speak of nothing else. At the same time, his own health is failing. Born in 1928, he was 70 by the time he had even begun to recover a normal life. He soon began to suffer many frailties, and it was apparently a trial for him to complete the memoir at all.

In part this is because just as Hall reached what he called "The Planet of Antiquity" he received the great, but also greatly demanding, honor of being named Poet Laureate of the United States. This entails many exhausting public appearances and interviews. The gratification of attention was almost outweighed by the demands it made on a man who could not walk without a cane and fell many times when attempting the stairs. But he survived the glorious ordeal and this book saw the light.

There is much more in Unpacking the Boxes, which ideally should be read after String too Short to Be Saved. The title of that first book also came from something found in an attic, a box of snippets of string, with a label on the box that read, "String too short to be saved." It is from such detritus that Hall has made this presumably final memoir, and the title might almost have been recycled. Fine as the work is, there will still be something for the eventual biographers, as Hall has not written much in these memoirs about the actual poems he published. This has the "virtue" that one can enjoy Unpacking the Boxes without knowing anything of Hall's poetry, which then awaits as a further literary adventure.


January 27, 2012

Election 2012: The Second Florida Debate

After the American Century

The second Florida debate is over, and it appears that Romney is suddenly a stronger debater. He has a new coach, and he was far more aggressive and convincing than before. Based on the debate alone, Romney seemed more credible and competent. Indeed, at several points he wiped the floor with Gingrich.

Based on this performance, many of the pundits now think that Newt may not be able to win in Florida. Moreover, new polls suggest that Obama would thrash Gingrich by almost 20 points. Many leading Republicans have said that he would not be the right man. The momentum seems to have shifted, in short.  Yet one of the most recent national polls does show Gingrich leading Romney 31 to 27%. And think about this. When either Paul or Santorum drops out, their voters are more likely to shift over to Gingrich than to Romney.

What about those two other candidates? Both Santorum and Paul had a good night. So long as they are in the race no one will be able to amass a majority of the Republican delegates to the convention. So much has happened already,that we cannot assume that the selection process is soon going to be over.

Meanwhile, the Republican candidates speak, with no sense of irony, of "self deportation" as a solution to the illegal immigrant problem. Newt Gingrich wants English to be "the official language of government" as if it were not already rather the case.  There was an absurd discussion about deporting illegal grandmothers. They speak so seriously and their audience of true Republican believers is so enthusiastic, one can forget that much of what is being discussed is nonsense.

Let the fun continue, just do not take them too seriously.