The Danish prime minister announced in her New Year's speech that in order to meet its goals for reduced carbon emissions, it would develop clean, organic airline fuel and require its use on domestic airline routes by 2030. This is a classic example of a technological fix. Note the following aspects of this plan.
1. It will begin with research and development toward a goal that cannot possibly be achieved before the next election that must be held in 2024.
2. No one really knows whether it can be achieved by 2030.
3. The Danish media liked the story and gave it considerable coverage, without, however, attempting to understand what is necessary, practically speaking, to achieve this goal.
4. It sounds impressive, but actually will have no effect on the majority of the nation's air traffic. Denmark is a small country and taking the train or driving a car is a faster than air travel to get to most places anyway.
5. The public need not do anything at all, as this plan will be carried out by researchers and then imposed on a few domestic routes. The plan basically tells the public that people can continue to travel just as much and in the same ways as they are accustomed to. No change in values or behavior is necessary. Just leave it to the researchers!
6. The proposed solution addresses only a small part of a much larger problem
The prime minster emphasized that Denmark remains a world leader in the shift toward a green economy. But to the extent that this may be true (and it is debatable), it has little to do with her administration. Before the last election it promised to ban throw-away plastic bags, but instead imposed a tax on them. This has reduced their use in favor of sturdier multiple-use bags, but it has hardly eliminated them. It is difficult to see any important changes in policy. The public has been shifting toward electric cars, especially in 2021, but the government can claim little credit for this change.
The reliance on automobiles has increased markedly in Denmark during the last 30 years. In 1990 there were 1.6 million automobiles in the country. In 2018, just before the pandemic, the number has risen to 2.6 million. Since then, the public has been reluctant to take public transportation, fearing exposure to COVID-19, and reliance on cars has further increased. The government has done almost nothing to reverse this trend.
Moreover, a study from DTU engineering suggests that both the level of car ownership and the amount of driving will continue to increase in Denmark. By 2040, the report estimates that per capita car ownership will rise from about 50% to over 60%. These vehicles will be driven on average at least 2,000 kilometers further than the cars on the roads today. In short, Denmark is headed in the wrong direction, and will have more cars that will be driven greater distances. The roads will be more congested, parking ever more costly and difficult, and public transport alternatives will be less utilized than they are today. No wonder the prime minister chose to say nothing about automobiles.
Even if all of these new vehicles are electric, their production and eventual disposal imposes large ecological costs. Producing an automobile requires more energy and resources than using that car for five years. They use large quantities of steel, lead, rubber, plastic, and glass, and are full of computer chips. Automobile manufacturing consumes vast amounts of energy. One third of the environmental damage from automobiles occurs before they are purchased, and more arises from their eventual disassembly and disposal. It just happens that Denmark does not manufacture cars, and therefore these costs will be displaced to other countries. However, the infrastructure for automobiles demands vast amounts of space, and it entails enormous CO2 pollution released during the construction of roads and bridges. Add to this traffic noise and visual pollution, and it is impossible to regard the increasing Danish reliance on automobiles as part of a green environmental strategy.
Given this larger picture, how useful is the proposed transformation of domestic airplane fuel? It is merely a gimmick to distract attention from larger transportation problems and worrying trends. It is a technological fix that might or might not work for a small part of the problem of creating a sustainable and egalitarian transportation system. Shame on the majority of Danish political commentators who were deceived and distracted by the prime minister's announcement.
For more on technological fixes, see David E. Nye, Technology Matters. (MIT Press, 2006), 142-144.
For more on the history of automobile manufacturing, see David E. Nye, America's Assembly Line (MIT Press, 2013)
