July 11, 2024

Electic Vehicle Sales predict state political alignments

After the American Century


A poll by PEW Research has found a correlation between sales of electric vehicles (EVs) in a State and its presidential preferences. California had by far the highest sale of new EVs, around 25 percent, and it voted solidly for Biden in 2020.  At the other extreme, with less than 2 percent EV sales are some extreme Trump states: North Dakota, Mississippi, West Virginia, Louisiana, and Wyoming. In fact, every one of the seventeen states with the fewest EVs sold voted for Trump, while nineteen of the twenty states with the highest EV sales voted for Biden. (The exception was Utah, but Mormons are exceptions in many things).  All the swing states were in the middle, including Michigan (3.96%), Wisconsin (4.08%), Pennsylvania (623%), Georgia (7.35%), and Arizona (9.06%).  


It seems likely that EV sales will be weak in a state like Mississippi where few people believe that global warming is real.  But there is another reason why states might not want EVs to sell well: such cars do not pay fuel tax. Most states get between 4% and 8% of their annual tax revenue from a tax on gasoline. If the public gets EVs, then the state budget will be in trouble.