What if TrumpPutin Wins Ukranian War?

After the American Century

President Don TrumpPutin has achieved a diplomatic victory. In a demonstration of the "art of the deal," he posed to be a peace-maker, when in fact he was collaborating with the Russian leader Vlad PutinTrump. 

If this deal goes through, not only will America WIN, but just as important Ukraine and Europe will LOSE. The United States will get mineral resources from Ukraine, in exchange for support given in the past (under President Biden).  AND the United States will get investment opportunities in Russia in exchange for support given it during the "peace negotiations."

Russia will be rewarded with territory, and the economic sanctions against it will be lifted. Its bombing of hospitals, schools, and other war crimes, and its kidnapping of thousands of Ukrainian children will not be punished.  It also appears likely that Russia will not object should Trump-putin acquire Canada and/or Greenland.

Ukraine will get nothing. The war has given it billions of dollars of damage, plus thousands of dead and wounded. If the plan goes through, Ukraine will be crippled. shrunken, bankrupt, and denied membership in NATO or the EU. President Trump-putin says this is only fair because Ukraine started the war by forcing Russia to invade. (Trump repeats this nonsense!)

Europe gets a lesson. Do not count on the United States. When the United Nations was founded, the Americans signed the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights and The Universal Declaration of Human Rights. It promised to uphold the right to national self-determination, and the rights to freedom of speech, freedom of assembly, and due process of law. President Trump-putin is actively working against these rights at home and abroad

The era of international law appears to be coming to a close. This marks the end of the American Century. When entering World War I, Woodrow Wilson wanted to make the world safe for democracy. But the US Senate embraced isolationism instead, and it refused to ratify American membership in the League of Nations. Trump is the political descendant of those Senators.

His policy is "America First," which apparently means "Russia second, Britain third, Europe fourth, fourth Canada, fifth Mexico, far down the list, Denmark, near the bototm, Ukraine, and China last." This ranking can also be seen in the Trump-imposed tariffs. There are no tariffs for Russia, low tariffs on Britain, higher tariffs on Europe, higher still for Canada, and more than 100% tariffs for China. 

Some possible consequences of Trump's policy toward Ukraine. 

1. Europe rearms; Germany reasserts itself as a military power. 

2. Europeans join Canadians and Mexicans as "former friends" of the US, and as a result no longer support the American dollar, travel less to the US, and move some of their trade elsewhere.

3. A wave of Ukrainian refugees floods into Europe.

4. China avoids tariffs by exporting through shell companies in Russia. More importantly, China grows stronger and becomes the world's dominant economy.

5. The United States, its moral leadership in tatters and its military support uncertain, withdraws from NATO. 

6. Russia rebuilds its armed forces and plans further attacks, since its ambition is to recreate the geographical boundaries of the Soviet Union before it fell apart.

What next for Snowden in the limbo of Moscow? Asylum or disapperance?

After the American Century                                                                                                                   

What will happen to Mr. Snowden, still  in  Moscow?

One possibility is that he retains one or two big revelations as bargaining chips, in hopes that he can use them to gain a safe harbor. Moscow does not seem to be exactly that sort of place, given the treatment of journalists there, and the continuance of the Tsarist tradition of sending critics to prison. Putin-land is surely not the ideal location for a whistle blower. He might want to trade secrets for security in Russia, but other nations could be interested, depending on what he might have.

South American destinations have been in the news, more likely Ecuador, Venezuela, Peru or Bolivia than Chile, Argentina, or Brazil. Considering these possibilities underlines the nature of the problem. A large and important country is not likely to burden itself with the difficulty of entertaining Mr. Snowden. A small country probably would not likely think the risk had any payoff. Only a small to medium-sized nation that is somewhat independent of the US, probably with a left-leaning government (Venezuela comes to mind), is a likely safe haven.  Back in the Cold War, there were a few nations in Europe that might have been possible. Yugoslavia would have been ideal and Finland or even Sweden might then have been possible.

Assume, for the moment, that Mr. Snowden does find permanent asylum. Then what? He will  be a fish out of water. He will need to learn the language and the culture. He will need a job, perhaps not a difficulty since he has real computer skills. He presumably will also need protection. Soon, his knowledge of US National Security will be out-of-date and of no interest to any foreign power. He will then be of only symbolic value to the host nation, someone that they can point to as proof that they are tolerant, freedom-loving, and critical of Uncle Sam. 

Presumably Snowden hoped for more when he decided to give up his well-paying job in Hawaii and become a whistle-blower. Surely he imagined that the revelations he brought would be so shocking that major powers would come to his rescue. Perhaps they are, albeit behind the scenes. One could imagine that Germany or France might quietly prefer to have a chance to talk with him. (Since writing this he has met with the Germans.) But if so, this is all likely behind thick veils of secrecy. 

Snowden might have expected a groundswell of popular support, which in part has materialized both inside the US and abroad. The US officially wants him captured and brought back to stand trial, but does Obama really want such a media circus? A trial would delight the Republicans and erode the unity of the Democratic Party, because those on the left would tend to see Snowden as a martyr. Indeed, the best thing for Obama might be to have Snowden end up in some banana republic where he could be depicted as a fugitive from justice, and where he could then gradually fade from public attention. 

Following this line of thought, it is perhaps not entirely disagreeable to Obama to have Snowden malingering in Moscow. Where are the Russian whistle-blowers, after all, but in prisons? Snowden without assistance can neither escape nor fade conveniently away. But the latter is actually what Putin and perhaps Obama might eventually prefer. Give the man a facelift, new identity, exile, and anonymity. If he disappears without a trace, he would have little incentive to reappear on the world stage.

Snowden's disappearance would not be justice, and it would would not reconcile the massive security he uncovered with the ideals of democracy. But it has a certain noir elegance worthy of a novel.