This post is a reflection on how much has changed since the early months of the Trump presidency, when he dramatically ceased to support Ukraine and told its president that "he did not hold any cards." Trump foreign policy is a vast, chaotic arena, and here I will only focus on the war in Ukraine and to a lesser extend the war in Iran.
In April, 2025 President Trump provided an example of his "art of the deal." He posed to be a peace-maker between Russia and Ukraine, when in fact he was collaborating with the Russian leader Vlad Putin.
The deal seemed to be that United States would get mineral resources from Ukraine, in exchange for support given in the past (under President Biden), AND the United States would also get investment opportunities in Russia in exchange for support given during the "peace negotiations."
In this "deal," Russia would have been rewarded with territory, and the economic sanctions against it would have been lifted. Its bombing of hospitals, schools, and other war crimes, and its kidnapping of thousands of Ukrainian children would not have been punished. It also appears likely that Russia would not object should Trump seize Canada and/or Greenland.
In this "deal," Ukraine would have gotten nothing. The war had caused billions of dollars of damage, plus thousands of dead and wounded. If the deal had gone through, Ukraine would have been crippled, shrunken, bankrupt, and denied membership in both NATO or the EU. President Trump said that this was only fair because Ukraine supposedly started the war by forcing Russia to invade. (Trump repeated this Putin-inspired nonsense.)
Europe was given a lesson. It could no longer count upon the United States. When the United Nations was founded, the Americans signed the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights and The Universal Declaration of Human Rights. It promised to uphold the right to national self-determination, and the rights to freedom of speech, freedom of assembly, and due process of law. Instead, President Trump actively worked against these rights, both at home and abroad.
Indeed, without US support, the era of international law may be coming to a close, marking the end of the American Century. When entering World War I, Woodrow Wilson wanted to make the world safe for democracy. But the US Senate embraced isolationism instead, and it refused to ratify American membership in the League of Nations.
Trump is the political descendant of those senators. His policy of "America First," in April, 2025 seemd to mean: Russia second, Britain third, Europe fourth, Canada fifth, Mexico sixth, and far down the list (because it won't sell Greenland) Denmark, while near the bottom of the list is Ukraine. This ranking could also be seen in the Trump-imposed tariffs. There were no tariffs for Russia, low tariffs on Britain, higher tariffs on Europe, higher still for Canada, etc.
In April, 2025, it seemed that Trump's policies would result in a number of transformations (in each case followed by comments on actual events after that April.)
1. Europe rearms; Germany reasserts itself as a military power. This is in fact what is happening. European military investment has increased. Finland and Sweden have joined NATO, creating a much more robust defensive position in northern Europe. Germany has increased its annual military budget to $114 billion, which is expected to increase to $188 billion in 2029. Examples of other increases:
France, 2% of GDP $71 billion
Poland to 4.8% of GDP $55 billion
Italy 2.8% of GDP $48 billion
Spain, 2.4% of GDP $39.5 billion
Netherlands 2.5% of GDP $28.9 billion
Norway to 3.5% of GDP $19 billion.
Denmark, 3.5% of GDP $15 billion
2. Europeans and Canadians weaken support the American dollar, travel less to the US, and move some of their trade elsewhere. In 2026 support for the dollar remains, though it has lost value under Trump. European and Canadian travel to the US has fallen off. Canada still has a trade surplus with the US, and it has successfully shifted its trade elsewhere, too. Between 2016 and 2025, EU-Canada bilateral trade increased by 80%, to €130 billion. In May 2026 Canada had an overall trade surplus, including a 74% increase in exports to China ($3.99 billion Canadian) and an 86% increase in exports to the Netherlands (to $1.45 million Canadian). Its exports to Germany also had increased 25%.
3. A wave of Ukrainian refugees floods into Europe. This has not happened, because Ukraine has done much better in the war than Trump expected, despite the decline in US support. The Russian army has been unable to grind forward in a war of attrition, because Ukranian drone warfare has proven extremely effective. In the first years of the war, Russian lost 2 or 3 men for each Ukrainian casualty, a 3:1 ratio. But drones have increased deaths of offensive movement on the battlefield. That ratio is now 8:1, making offensive campaigns terribly grim for Russians.
4. China avoids Trump's tariffs by exporting through shell companies. In fact, China stood up to Trump's tariffs by curtailing exports of rare earths that are essential for IT. Trump then caved in. At the same time, China successfully expanded exports to other nations. Moreover, China has increased its production of patents, surpassing the US. It now challenges American production of automobiles, advanced computer technologies, and especially alternative energy, where China is the clear leader.
5. The United States, its moral leadership in tatters and its military support uncertain, withdraws from NATO. This remains a possibility, for trust in NATO has declined. The US-Israeli war against Iran has created additional tensions, as NATO has no duty to defend non-member Israel. Moreover, and probably the main point, NATO is explicitly a defensive alliance. Had Iran attacked Turkey, for example, then NATO would have a duty to join in the conflict. But if Turkey were to attack Iran, NATO would not have a duty to become aggressive. That is hypothetical. In the case of the actual war, the Americans kept the attack on Iran secret and therefore Europeans were unpreared to join in, even if they had wanted to. Trump only began demanding their help when attacks failed to force Iran to the bargaining table. In short, Trump did not consult with his European allies, made overly optimistic plans, and demanded participation to help a non-NATO country in its aggression. Moreover, he insulted his allies with lies and about their participation in the previous wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
6. Russia rebuilds its armed forces and plans further attacks, in order to realize its ambition to recreate the geographical boundaries of the Soviet Union before it fell apart. This remains a possibility, in part because the US military has proven unable to subdue Iran and appears to be running out of missiles in that war. Some analysts argue that the US position in the Persian Gulf is weaker now than before the war began. Its relations with NATO allies remain tense. The main check on Russia now is Ukraine itself. The Center for Strategic and International Studies estimated in July 2026 that 450,000 Russians had died in the war, with 1.4 million casualties in all. Russia recruits 27,000 each month, but it loses c. 30,000-34,000 on the battlefield. As the Center concluded: "Dense minefields, layered fortifications, heavy shelling, and the saturation of drones across a zone more than 20 kilometers wide around the front line make it extremely dangerous to mass the personnel and armor to generate a large breakthrough." In fact, the area Russia controlled shrank by 400 square kilometers in April and May. This war has become a stalemate on the ground.
Conclusion. Trump's attempt to end the Ukrainian war by siding with Russia proved to be a massive mis-judgement. The war with Iran has likewise been a costly misadventure. Already in March, CNN estimated that the war was costing $890 million every day. While the Pentagon has resisted full disclosure, and provided a vague estimate of $37.5 billion, Fortune magazine estimated on June 24 that the real cost was closer to $200 billion. That was 8 weeks ago, and the meter is still running. The military cost willsurely be higher than $300 billion, while consumers continue to face higher prices for oil, gas, fertilizer, and transportation.
Trump could have forced Russian to the bargaining table by giving Ukraine far less money than he has wasted in Iran. Instead, he has alienated his allies, produced two stalemates, and convinced the world that the Trump administration is unreliable and overconfident.
