Education: Pisa Test Results, 2012

After the American Century   

Pisa rankings have been developed, based on extensive testing in 65 countries.  Students at age 15 were tested in math, reading and science. When taking all three tests scores into account, the first forty nations are ranked as shown in the list below. Note that the first three scores are for cities, not nations. Impressive as they are, they cannot easily be compared to entire countries. South Korea and Japan have high scores for a much larger sample, including a cross-section of the entire population.

In general, the top twenty are improving, in some cases remarkably. But most of those with composite scores below 1520 are not improving or only improving a little. Geographically, Asia leads, followed by Eastern Europe, and then Western Europe plus New Zealand and Australia. Well below the middle one finds the United States. There is a dismal tie between Latin America and the Moslem World for the weakest showing. The real last place may be somewhere in Africa, which was not included in the study.

                                                        score in 2009        improvement

1. Shanghai                   1783             1731                     52

Above 1600

2. Singapore                  1666            1630                    - 36

3. Hong Kong               1661             1637                   - 24

4. South Korea             1628              1623                   -  5

5. Japan                        1621              1588                    33

6. Taiwan                     1606               1558                    48

Above 1550

7. Finland                     1588               1631                  - 43

8. Estonia                     1578               1541                    37

9. Liechtenstein           1576                1555                    21

10. Macau-China         1568               1523                    45

11. Canada                   1566               1580                    14

12. Switzerland            1565               1552                    13

13. Poland                    1562               1503                    59

14. Netherlands            1556               1556                    no change

Above 1500

15. Vietnam                  1547                n.a.                     

16. Germany                 1546               1530                   16

17. Ireland                    1534                1489                   45

18. Australia                 1534                1556                   22

19. New Zealand          1528                1559                   21

20. Belgium                  1519                1528                  - 9

21. United Kingdom     1507                1500                    7

22. Czech Republic       1500                1473                  27

23. Austria                     1502                1503                   1

Above 1475

24. France                       1499              1491                    8

25. Slovenia                    1496              1496                   no change

26. Denmark                   1494              1497                   -3

27. Norway                     1488              1501                  -13

28. Latvia                        1482                n.a. 

29. United States             1476              1489                 -13

From 1422-1469

30. Italy                          1469

31. Luxembourg             1468

32. Spain                        1468

33. Portugal                    1464

34. Hungary                   1459

35. Lithuania                  1455

36. Iceland                     1454

37. Croatia                     1447

38. Sweden                    1446                1486                 - 40

39. Russia                      1443

40. Israel                        1422

Latin America (selected scores)

Chile                            1309

Costa Rica                   1277

Mexico                        1252

Uruguay                      1236

Brazil                          1206

Argentina                    1190

Colombia                    1178

Peru                            1125  (last place in all categories)

Moslem World (selected scores)

Turkey                        1386

Unit. Arab Emirates   1324

Tunisia                        1190

Jordan                         1188

Qatar                          1148

Indonesia                    1153 (next to last place overall)

With the notable exception of Finland (which declined from a high position), the Nordic nations made a poor showing. They have collectively fallen toward the bottom of the league table. If their decline continues, within another decade one of them might be relegated and formed to move en masse to Argentina.

Decline in education may well be a predictor for a decline in economic development a generation later.

PISA test results

After the American Century

The 2009 PISA results can be seen in the table accompanying this article. (For the 2012 results, click here ) Both Europe and the United States must do a better job educating their children if they are to keep up with Asia. On the reading test European countries were not so far apart, and ranged from a low of 483 (Greece and Slovenia) to a high of 508 (Netherlands). That is only a 25 point spread. But the difference between the Netherlands and Shanghai was 48 points, almost twice as much. Well, actually Finland did get 536, far and away the best showing for Europe. The pattern was the same in Science and in Math, where China was by far the best, while the Europeans clustered well behind. The United States was mediocre in all three categories.

Sadly, education budgets are being cut in many European countries, which are not investing in new schools or more teachers. Indeed, Denmark has just decided to let the size of classes in elementary school get larger, a serious mistake. Larger classes tend to be harder to keep focused, and they demand far more of teachers, who can scarcely give individual attention to students who need extra help or those who need extra stimuli.

If you take the three test scores and add them together, this is the result (not all nations surveyed are included in this list).

Shanghai               1731
Hong Kong           1637
Finland                  1631
Singapore              1630
Korea                    1623

Japan                      1588
Canada                   1580
New Zealand         1559
Australia                1556
Netherlands           1556
Switzerland           1552

Estonia                  1541
Germany               1530
Belgium                1528

Poland                   1503
Norway                 1501
Britain                   1500
Denmark               1497

Average Score      1492

France                    1491

United States         1489

Ireland                   1489
Sweden                  1486                

If the future belongs to the best educated, then the future belongs to Asia, Canada, New Zealand, Australia, the Netherlands, and Switzerland. Judging by this list, being a wealthy country helps, but it is not the determining factor. Norway has no national debt and a huge public surplus, yet achieved only average results, while Finland, which has less money per capita than Denmark or Norway, was at the top. And the United States, which for decades was the wealthiest large nation in the world, scores below the average.

See also World University Rankings